Sabremetrix Notebook: Playoffs?!
The last playoff series the Buffalo Sabres were leading after the first three games? The 2007 Eastern Conference semifinals against the New York Rangers. 19 years ago. It’s good to be back.
Games 1 and 2
I feel like I have to kick off this article by talking about Games 1 and 2 of the Sabres first playoff series since 2011. Heading into Game 1, the key theme was: “I don’t know, I guess we’ll find out.”
How many people will show up for the watch party at Canalside? Where do I park? What will the bars be like during the game? Do people tailgate for these games? How loud will the arena be? How many visiting fans will be at the arena?
I don’t know, I guess we’ll find out.
Well we certainly found out: the atmosphere both around and inside the arena was incredible. Between the Blade Gang commuting from South Buffalo, the dummy in a Cam Neely jersey, and the revved up crowd at Canalside; the atmosphere outside the arena may have been just as lively as the crowd inside the arena.
I was lucky enough to witness the miraculous Game 1 comeback in person at the arena and, wow, what a moment. You could feel the collective weight being lifted from Sabres’ fans shoulders as Alex Tuch put away the empty net game-winning goal.
For a brief moment in time it felt like I was back in 2007. It felt like this team was destined for greatness.
And then Game 2 happened and we were quickly reminded that this is the NHL playoffs. If you take a night off you will pay the price.
Ok, that’s enough about Game 2.
Noah Östlund masterclass
I said heading into this postseason that I think it may be difficult for Noah Östlund to break into the Sabres lineup for Games 1 and 2.
This wasn’t because I thought he was a bad player. I just did the math in my head and knew he was dealing with an injury that required pain tolerance, knew Lindy would want to initially roll out a heavy 4th line to match the Bruins, knew the middle six lines were written with permanent marker, and knew that Peyton Krebs was liked on the top line. It would take a top nine injury for him to slide in early.
Fast forward to Game 3 and Josh Norris was sidelined with an injury (does anybody else feel like Norris goes head or shoulder first into the boards more than any other player? Maybe I’m just cautiously watching for it more with him than other players but it seems like this is an actual thing).
Noah Östlund slid into Josh Norris’ spot on a line flanked by Zach Benson and Josh Doan. He managed to put together an incredible hockey game after a lot of time sidelined. 1 empty net goal, 1 primary assist, 75.1 xGF% at 5v5.
It looked like it was going to be another one of those games where Sabres were blanked in the first two periods and would have to scramble for goals in the third.
Then we saw some magic from Östlund. Confident carrying the puck up ice into the offensive zone, drawing the eyes of the Bruins players, forcing them to scramble to find their defensive zone responsibilities, and then finding an open Bowen Byram for the shot and goal:
This is the type of chance creation the Sabres seemingly lacked in the first few periods of Game 1 and Game 2. The puck carrying, the skating to open his hips as he looks for an open man, the passing ability to time things through traffic.
This is how the Sabres can win with their skill. If they fall into the “head down and win board battles” trap they are leaving this series to chance (and have to deal with a 6’7”, 255 lb Nikita Zadorov in the process).
Sure the board battles will still be a big part of this series and any series, but mix in a sequence like the above when given the time and space.
My favorite Östlund moment from Game 3 may actually be his empty net goal to seal the deal. He rushes up ice towards the puck, hears the skate blades of multiple Bruins players closing in on him, and doesn’t get a big bounce off the wall.
The easy (but not as good) play here would have been to take a quick swing at the puck on net and go for a skate around the net to get back on defense if it doesn’t go in. Instead he goes full psycho mode, cuts to his outside into oncoming traffic, and sends the puck right through David Pastrnak’s legs:
Östlund has no idea what is coming for him if he cuts back there. It very well could have been a disgruntled Bruins player lined up to send him into the first row of seats. But he takes the risk anyway. The perfect mix of grit, determination, and deception needed to win playoff hockey games.
Game 3 = shutdown hockey
According to Evolving-Hockey, the Boston Bruins were held to just 0.79 Expected Goals For at 5v5 across 42 minutes. That was a pretty big change after the Bruins recorded 1.74 and 2.34 xGF at 5v5 in Games 1 and 2 respectively.
That is the 2nd lowest 5v5 xGF a team has recorded in a game so far this playoffs. It is also the 2nd lowest 5v5 xGA the Sabres have given up in a game this season (0.59 xGA in the Chicago game on 4/13 was the lowest).
The Bruins were held to just 11 shots at 5v5 in Game 3, way down from the 24 5v5 shots they recorded in an ugly Game 2.
I know that the Bruins aren’t the most offensively gifted team by NHL playoff standards, but to be able to shut down a team like that at evens is impressive. That ability is a great tool to have in your back pocket and is a far cry from the “river hockey” title given to this Sabres team by one of their critics.
Alex Lyon had a great game, he had to make some difficult saves on the power play. But I do think the star of Game 3 really was the Sabres collectively being able to dial in things defensively. You could see their Monday video session at work as they locked in defensively to prevent odd-man rushes and better read the Bruins offensive zone sequences.
How the Sabres came out in Game 3 was massive because they looked good enough in Game 1, but absolutely terrible in Game 2. The tiebreaker on vibes would go to whatever happened in Game 3.
And Game 3 showed us that this is still a good, resilient Buffalo Sabres hockey team that can win in multiple ways. This group desperately needed that reminder after Tuesday’s showing, doing it on the road makes it even more impressive.
Power play woes
The Sabres power play has been absolutely terrible lately. I don’t think anyone needs to be reminded of that. 0 for their last 35 attempts.
There have been five teams with at least 23 minutes of power play time so far this playoffs, the Sabres being among that group with 25:46 of total power play time. Four of those five teams have scored at least 3 power play goals. The one team in that group who hasn’t scored at least 3 power play goals is the Sabres who (obviously) have 0.
In terms of their expected stats on the power play, they are firmly in the middle of the pack this playoffs rankings 9th of 16 in xGF/60.
Zone entries don’t appear to be that big of a problem. They rank 4th of 16 in unblocked shot attempts per 60 on the power play this playoffs, you need to possess the puck to get those shot attempts off.
Everything points to the Sabres having a power play that should rate out as perfectly average. Maybe even slightly above average considering their shooting talent and shot volume.
But hockey is a game where wins are measured by goals scored and the Sabres’ power play hasn’t been scoring goals.